多项绿色生产技术的采纳决策:影响因素及相关性分析

Adoption decisions of multiple agricultural green production technologies:Explanatory factors and correlation analysis

为探索农户面临多项绿色生产技术时如何做出采纳决策,本研究采用多元Probit模型在控制误差项相关的基础上,分析农户采纳不同属性绿色生产技术(保护性耕作技术、绿色防控技术、农膜回收处理技术)的可观测影响因素,并研究多项技术采纳决策之间的相关性。进一步地,通过技术采纳的条件概率与平均处理效应(ATT)来估计相关性对每一项技术采纳的影响。结果表明:1)不同资源禀赋的农户对采纳属性各异的技术有一定的选择偏向,但又不必然采纳对应属性的技术。2)不同阶段的绿色生产技术采纳相互依赖,存在着较强的正相关性。通过对比其影响效应发现,农户采纳绿色生产技术的项目数量对采纳概率的提升具有"叠加效应",不同绿色生产技术间相关性的影响具有异质性。因此,本研究提出应结合农户的资源禀赋和技术属性,采用差异化的技术推广策略,并根据技术间相关性影响的大小,合理安排技术组合与推广的先后顺序,以最大化绿色生产技术推广的效果。

To explore how farmers make decisions when facing multiple green production technologies,this study uses a multivariate Probit model to analyze the observable determinants of different green production technologies(conservation tillage technology,green control techniques,and recycling of agricultural plastic film)based on crosscorrelation error controlled,and the correlation among adopted technologies are investigated.The cross-technology correlation is estimated by using conditional probabilities and the average treatment effect method.The results show that:1)Farmers with different resource endowments have certain technical choices for the technology of different attributes,but they do not necessarily adopt the technology of corresponding attributes.2)Farmers’adoption of different green production technologies is interdependent,and there exist a strong positive correlation.Comparing the effects,the number of technologies that farmers adopt increase the probability of adoption,which results in a"superimposed effect".The impact of the cross-technology correlation is heterogeneous.Therefore,this study proposes differentiated technology promotion strategies should be adopted according to farmers’resource endowments and technical attributes.And to improve the efficiency of green production technology promotion,the technical combination and the sequence of technology promotion should be arranged reasonably according to cross-technology correlation.