基于二维信息扩散模型的收入保险费率厘定:方法与实证

Calculation of revenue insurance premium rate based on two-dimension information diffusion model:Method and demonstration

为探究小样本情况下农作物收入保险费率厘定方法,构建了非均匀布点的二维信息扩散模型,设计了利用信息扩散技术测算收入保险费率的方法和步骤,采用蒙特卡洛模拟方法验证了二维信息扩散模型的估计效率。结果表明:在小样本情况下,非均匀布点的二维信息扩散模型具有更好的估计效率,能够提高收入保险费率的估计精度;以河北省玉米收入保险为例,运用二维信息扩散模型测算出其纯费率为8.29%。本研究提出的费率厘定方法有助于提高小样本条件下的农作物收入保险费率厘定精度,有利于收入保险高质量发展。

In order to explore the method of determining crop income insurance premium rate under small sample size,this study constructs a two-dimension information diffusion model with non-uniform distributionm,and the method and steps of calculating income insurance premium rate are designed by using information diffusion technology,and the estimation efficiency of the two-dimension information diffusion model is verified by using Monte Carlo simulation method.The results show that:In the case of small sample size,the two-dimension information diffusion model with non-uniform distribution has better estimation efficiency,and can improve the estimation accuracy of income insurance rate.Taking the corn income insurance in Hebei Province as an example,the net premium rate is 8.29% by using the two-dimension information diffusion model.In conclusion,the method proposed in this study is helpful to improve the accuracy of rate determination of crop income insurance in the case of small sample size,and is conducive to the highquality development of income insurance.