群体突发事件极端化的影响因素研究

Trace and identify the influential factors of the group-size emergency extreme events

为了预防和控制群体突发事件,研究群体突发事件极端化的影响因素,基于文献研究法和典型案例分析,从群体突发事件极端化的参与者情绪、围观者行为、信息传播、政府应急水平4个维度中提取14个极端化影响因素构建指标体系,首先运用ISM解释结构模型分析各因素之间的联系并进行分类;其次用ANP网络层次分析法对各影响因素的影响力进行排序,确定指标的综合权重;最后构建群体突发事件极端化的影响因素层级结构网络模型。结果表明,多层递阶的影响因素网络模型可以有效建立群体突发事件极端化的影响结构,其中政府应急水平因素组所占权重最高。

The given paper is to devote itself to tracing and identifying the status and nature of the group-size emergency events both at home and abroad and clarify its author’s points of view on such group emergency events.At the same time,the author is also inclined to present and provide for a decision-making basis for preventing from and controlling over such group emergency events from the theoretical view-point of the official emergency control strategy.To achieve the above mentioned viewpoints,we have collected and summarized 30 typical cases of the group emergency extreme events through literature overview and on-site investigation.From the 4 aspects of the participants’emotion,the onlookers’behavior,the information dissemination and the governmental official emergency control and the management level,we have built up 14 influential factors by extracting an indexical system.First of all,the structural model has been managed to explain by using the ISM with the correlation analysis of the 14 influential factors so as to gain the mutual influence of the factors concerned.In correspindence with the Tamura H’s hierarchical division method we have proposed,the 14 influential factors can be divided into 3 groups,that is,the driving factors,the linkage factors and dependable factors.And,next,we have managed to analyze the influence of the participants’emotions,the onlookers’behaviors,the information dissemination and the governmental official emergency response,which may account for and be contributed to 17.23%,18.70%,56.18%and 17.40%of the total sum of the normalized weights respectively and correspondingly to the ANP network model.What is more,of the total sum of the normalized weights of the related factors,the highest weight should be alleged to the factor of the governmental emergency level,which can then be followed by the information dissemination,and the sensitivity weight of the 14 influential factors to events.Thus,it can be seen from the hierarchical network structure of the group emergency extreme influential factors resulted by Gephi,that a complex network analysis software can help to deduce that the chief factor of the group emergency extreme should be the stimulation scale of the emotion of the gathering crowd.And,then,the concealment of communication media,the perception of the rumor under way,the availability of the information gathering,the sensitivity of the gathering crowd to the events,should help to control and manage the event emergency system involved.Of all the above mentioned factors,the essential influential faactors should help to accumulate and overcome the pessimism,the cognitive deviation caused by the emotional infection,and the behavior transfer driven by the emotion,the dissatisfaction aventure,and the mentality of the selfaccusation.Therefore,the results of our literature overview and on-site investigation show that the multi-level network model of the influential factors can help to establish effectively an influential structure of the group emergency extremes.