化学危害下食源性畜禽产品质量安全风险评估——以G省G市为例

On the quality and safety risk assessment of the foodborne livestock and poultry products under chemical hazards——taking G City in G Province as a research sample

对食源性畜禽产品的化学危害类别进行风险识别与评估。以2017—2018年G市畜禽产品质量安全监测任务得到的3697个样本数据为基础,结合数据分析法、风险矩阵法和Borda序值法构建了综合风险评估模型。利用数据分析法识别出监测不合格的化学要素,借助各要素的检出率或超标率计算其出现概率。通过风险矩阵法对发生概率及影响程度进行赋值,进而评估要素的风险水平。运用Borda序值法确定畜禽产品各环节化学要素的重要性。结果表明,各化学风险要素的风险水平和重要性程度存在差异。最终计算结果与《2019年度动物及动物产品兽药残留检测方法及残留限量》的管控趋势一致,表明该风险评估模型可信。

This paper is aimed at identifying and assessing chemical hazards of foodborne livestock and poultry products.For the said purpose,we have chosen the monitoring data provided by the Department of Agriculture of G Province and the Animal Health Supervision Institute of G City in 2017-2018 as the analysis samples so as to build up a risk assessment model for the safety of foodborne livestock and poultry products by joining the data analysis method,the risk matrix method and Borda sequence value method.For the said purpose,we have conducted the classification and statistics of the chemical hazards in the monitoring samples through data analysis.As a result,we have found 7 classes of drugs disqualified for monitoring,including the nitroimidazoles,sedatives,nitrofuran metabolites and some others.The occurrence probability of the disqualified chemical elements has been calculated based on the detective rate of the"non-detected class of drugs"and the over-standard rate of"limited added class of drugs".The appearance probabilities have been found as follows:nitrofurans accounts for 0.484;nitroimidazoles take up as 0.065;the sex hormones accounts for 0.193;sedatives—for 0.032;the olaquindox—for 0.129;the fluoroquinolones—for 0.065,with sulfonamides being of 0.032.And,then,we have also assigned the checking probability and the affecting extent.Besides,we have also assessed the result of the assignment,which has been found in linear increase with the occurrence probability and the extent of influence.The result of the assignment and the behavior link of each chemical element has also been made evaluated in terms of the risk matrix method and"the basis for the risk rating in the Australian-New Zealand Risk Management Standards"so as to come up to the 4 levels of risk.And,then,as combined with Borda sequential assessment method,we have also built up a comprehensive risk assessment model for chemical factors at the similar risk levels.The results of the model calculation can be stated as follows:The nitrofurans tends to cause the extreme risk,that is the most serious risk factor.The medicine of sex hormones and olaquindox may also be likely to cause somewhat extreme risks,which can be taken as the second significant factor to be taken into account.As to the sedatives and fluoroquinolones,they can also be taken as likely factors to lead to primary risks and medium risks respectively,which should be acknowledged to the third important factors to lead to nitroimidazoles and sulfonamides,though they should be taken as factors with lower risks,and therefore regarded as the fourth key factor.And apart from what is said above,we have also introduced the data analysis method,the risk matrix method and the Borda sequence value method primarily into the assessment of chemical risk factors of the livestock and poultry products.And,then,in terms of the significance of the indicators,the occurrence probability,the impact degree and the significance grades have also been chosen and taken as the key indicators of the risk assessment.And,so,the calculation and assessment results indicate that the evaluation and sequencing results turn out to be consistent with the control tendency results of 2019 animal and animal products veterinary drug residue detection methods and the residue limits,indicating that the calculation results of the said method have its own regular credibility.