基于支持向量机的山东省水资源承载力评价

Water resources carrying capacity evaluation based on the support vector machine in Shandong Province

选取人均水资源可利用量、水资源利用率、耕地灌溉率、人口密度、生态环境用水率等15个指标构建水资源承载力评价指标体系,并以水资源承载能力指数为评价标准,使用支持向量机方法对2001—2018年山东省及2016年17地市水资源承载力状况进行系统评价。结果表明:1)2001—2018年山东省水资源承载力指数在0.520~0.627范围内,除2017和2018年处于Ⅱ级外,其余年份均处于Ⅲ级,水资源承载能力较弱;2)工业产值占工农业产值的百分比、人均GDP、农民年均收入和万元工业增加值耗水量为影响山东省水资源承载力的有利因子,人均水资源量、水资源利用率、水功能区水质达标率、供水量模数、森林覆盖率和人口密度则为不利因子;3)2001—2018年山东省水资源承载力指数呈现上升态势,主要因为水功能区水质达标率、恩格尔系数、人均GDP、农民年均收入、万元工业增加值耗水量以及生态环境用水率的向好发展。总体上看,水资源短缺的形势依然不容乐观,今后应在非常规水源利用、水资源利用率提升、生态环境保护等方面采取更加有效的措施予以应对。

The given paper intends to take the water resources carrying capacity index as the evaluation criteria and analyze the water resources carrying capacity of Shandong Province in 2001-2018 and its 17 cities in 2016 for the first time by using the support vector machine method.And,to analyze and evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Shandong accurately,effectively and systematically,we have taken the support vector machine method to trace and assess the advantages of nonlinear problems in solving small samples of high complexity and factor multiplicity.As a matter of fact,the given method enjoys a strong advantage in assessing the water resources carrying capacity.The said index system of water resources carrying capacity evaluation was constructed by selecting 15 indexes such as per capita water resources available quantity,water resources utilization rate,cultivated land irrigation rate,population density and ecological environment water utilization rate.The high-precision support vector machine model was constructed by using 85 sample data.The results show that:(1)The water resources carrying capacity index of Shandong Province is in the range of 0.520-0.627 between 2001 to 2018.Except 2017 and 2018 in levelⅡ,the rest of the year are in levelⅢ,the water resources carrying capacity is weak,when human economic activities and the water environment can be in a state of uncoordinated development,and the water resources would become a bottleneck in terms of restricting the development of the social economy and the eco-environment;And,(2)The ratio of the industrial output to the total industrial and agricultural output(A7),per capita GDP(A8),as well as the average annual income of the local farmers(A9)and water consumption per 10000 yuan of the industrial added value(A14)are the favorable factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity of the whole Shandong Province;the water resources per capita(A1),water utilization rate(A2),water quality compliance rate in the water function area(A4),water supply modulus(A5),the forest coverage rate(A10),with the population density(A13)being the disadvantageous factors.(3)Although the overall situation of the water resources in the said province is not optimistic,the water resources carrying capacity index of the province has demonstrated an upward trend from2001 to 2018,mainly due to the proper heightening of the water quality compliance rate in the water function area(A4),the Engel coefficient(A6),per capita GDP(A8),the average annual income of the farmers(A9),the increase of their water consumption per 10000 yuan of industrial added value(A14)and water consumption rate of the eco-farming environment(A15).