张家口近40年降水量变化特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Precipitation Changes in Zhangjiakou in the past 40 years

利用1981—2020年张家口地区14个站点的的逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势、线性回归、多项式拟合、Mann-Kendall突变检验和t检验等方法,分析张家口地区降水量的变化特征。结果表明:张家口地区降水量有显著的年际和年代际变化,且呈现震荡递增的趋势,上升速率12.8 mm/年;受地形影响,降水量整体偏少且集中在夏季,降水分布不均;突变分析得出降水量在1986、1995和2015年发生突变。

Using the daily precipitation data of 14 stations in Zhangjiakou area from 1981 to 2020,linear trend,linear regression,polynomial fitting,Mann-Kendall mutation test and t test were used to analyze the change characteristics of precipitation in Zhangjiakou area.The results show that the precipitation in Zhangjiakou area has significant interannual and inter-decadal changes,and presents an increasing trend of fluctuations,with a rising rate of 12.8 mm/year.Due to the topography,the overall precipitation is relatively small and concentrated in summer,and the precipitation is unevenly distributed;The mutation analysis showed that the precipitation had abrupt changes in 1986,1995 and 2015.