三峡库区柑橘土壤水分动态变化的自回归积分滑动平均模型构建

Construction of an Autoregressive Integral Moving Average Model for the Dynamic Changes of Citrus Soil Moisture in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

采用时间序列分析法,针对三峡库区柑橘树根区60 cm深土壤水分建立ARIMA(1,1,1)模型。结果表明,拟合区与预测区相对误差分别为0.37%~7.67%、2.83%~5.56%,平均相对误差分别为4.33%、4.52%,均小于5%。该模型可以很好地模拟与预测柑橘树根区土壤水分的变化趋势,可以进一步应用在其他作物根区的土壤水分监测,为农作物优质生长、节水灌溉提供技术支撑。

The time series analysis method was used to establish the ARIMA(1,1,1)model for 60 cm deep soil moisture in the citrus tree root area of the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The results showed that the relative error of the fitted area and the predicted area was 0.37%-7.67%,2.83%-5.56%,respectively,the average relative errors was 4.33%and 4.52%,respectively,which were all less than 5%.The model could preferably simulate and predict the change trend of soil moisture in the root zone of citrus trees,and could be further applied to the monitoring of soil moisture in the root zone of other crops,providing technical support for high-quality crop growth and water-saving irrigation.