珠湖蓄滞洪区溃堤洪水模拟及损失评估

Modeling of dike-break induced flood routing and assessment of flood consequence in Zhuhu detention basin

为有效评估蓄滞洪区溃堤洪水灾害风险,本文依托鄱阳湖区珠湖蓄滞洪区,建立了洪水演进数值模型,模拟了蓄滞洪区溃堤洪水演进过程,获得了历史最高洪水位下的蓄滞洪区淹没范围、淹没水深及流速等重要淹没信息,进而根据洪水淹没信息分别估算了溃堤洪水可能给蓄滞洪区造成的生命、经济和生态环境损失.研究结果可为溃堤洪水灾害风险评估、蓄滞洪区内灾害等级划分、人员和物资撤离及迁移方案制定等提供重要的理论依据.

To effectively evaluate the risk of flood disaster induced by dike breach in the detention basin,a numerical model for flood routing analysis was established by taking Zhuhu detention basin in Poyang Lake area as a typical case.The flood routing process in Zhuhu detention basin was systematically simulated.The important inundate information,including the inundate area,inundate depth and velocity in Zhuhu detention basin under a historical maximum flood level was obtained.Based on the obtained inundate information,the damage of life,economic and ecological environment in the detention area caused by the dike-break flood were estimated,respectively.The research results can provide important theoretical basis for the risk assessment of dike-break flood disaster,classification of disaster levels in the detention basin,and formulation of evacuation and migration schemes of personnel and materials.