黄河流域城市经济关联与空间溢出实证研究

Empirical Study on Urban Economic Correlation and Spatial Spillover in the Yellow River Basin

为了给黄河流域高质量发展和各区域协调发展决策提供参考,基于2008—2017年黄河流域50个主要城市的面板数据,构建地理距离和经济距离两种空间矩阵,采用空间杜宾模型分析黄河流域生产要素的差异和各要素的溢出效应,从空间视角探讨了黄河流域高质量发展的路径。研究结果表明:黄河流域主要城市存在较强的空间相关性和集聚性特点,资本是推动区域经济发展的主要生产要素,劳动力属于主要抑制性因素,技术对流域经济的正向作用并不显著,第二、三产业尤其是第三产业对区域经济的增长有促进作用,政府的过度干预不利于区域经济增长。建议:积极探索流域协同发展之路,在承接其他地区产业的同时挖掘自身的经济增长点,建立长效的人才挖掘和培育机制,进一步释放各个生产要素的正向溢出效应,提高经济要素的利用效率,提高创新能力,做好对技术的长时期积累和进化,培育创新型城市,构建以黄河为纽带、以城市为载体、以产品为核心、以市场为导向、以互利合作为前提的黄河流域产业合作联盟,实现全流域的产业结构优化调整。

In order to provide reference for regional coordination and high-quality development decision-making in the Yellow River Basin,based on the panel data of 50 major cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2017,two spatial matrices of geographical distance and economic distance were constructed,and the spatial Dubin model was used to analyze the differences of production factors and the spillover effect of each factor.From the spatial perspective,this paper discussed the path to promote the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The results show that the main cities in the Yellow River Basin have strong spatial correlation and agglomeration characteristics,capital is the main factor of production to promote regional economic development,labor force is the main restraining factor,technology has no significant positive effect on the basin economy,the secondary and tertiary industries,especially the tertiary industry,can promote the regional economic growth,and excessive government intervention is unfavorable regional economic growth.It suggests that we should actively explore the road of coordinated development of river basins,tap their own economic growth points while undertaking industries in other regions,establish a long-term talent mining and cultivation mechanism,further release the positive spillover effect of various production factors,improve the utilization efficiency of economic factors,improve the innovation ability,do a good job in the long-term accumulation and evolution of technology,cultivate innovative cities,and construct a long-term innovation oriented city the Yellow River Basin industrial cooperation alliance will be built by taking the Yellow River as the link,the city as the carrier,the products as the core,the market as the guide and the mutual benefit cooperation as the premise,so as to realize the optimization and adjustment of the industrial structure of the whole basin.