碳达峰、碳中和目标下中国能源矿产发展现状及前景展望

Development status and prospects of China's energy minerals under the target of carbon peak and carbon neutral

碳达峰、碳中和目标是党中央国务院审时度势提出的重大战略决策,是我国能源行业革命性的变革,将对全球能源供需格局产生深远影响,为我国能源矿产未来发展指明了方向。我国作为世界最大的能源生产国和消费国,煤炭资源丰富,石油、天然气、铀等能源矿产自主供应能力不足,未来较长时间内能源矿产在我国一次能源消费中仍居主导地位。受资源禀赋、工业化发展阶段和以煤为主的能源消费结构等因素影响,我国承诺实现碳中和的目标和发达国家相比面临的挑战更加艰巨。本文通过梳理我国能源矿产发展现状,碳达峰、碳中和目标背景下初步预测2030年前我国化石能源消费将达到峰值45亿t标准煤左右,2060年非化石能源消费将占我国一次能源消费的85%左右。通过展望煤炭、石油、天然气等能源矿产的发展方向,从三个方面提出了相关政策建议:一是加强国内能源矿产发展利用的顶层设计;二是大力提升国内油气资源自主供应能力;三是处理好碳达峰、碳中和目标约束与能源安全保障的关系。

The goal of carbon peak and carbon neutral is a major strategic decision which is put forward by the Party Central Committee and the State Council after reviewing the situation.It is a revolutionary change in China's energy industry,which will have the profound impact on the global energy supply and demand pattern and point out the direction for the future development of China's energy minerals.As the world's largest energy producer and consumer,China is rich in coal resources and the independent supply capacity of oil,natural gas,uranium and other energy minerals is insufficient.Energy minerals will still occupy a dominant position in China's primary energy consumption for a long time to come in the future.Affected by factors such as resource endowment,industrialization development stage,and coal-based energy consumption structure,China's commitment to achieving the goal of carbon neutral is even more daunting than in developed countries.Through combing the current status of China's energy mineral development,and the background of carbon peak and carbon neutral goal,this paper preliminarily predicts that China's fossil energy consumption will reach a peak of about 4.5 billion tons of standard coal before 2030,and that non-fossil energy consumption will account about 85%of China's primary energy consumption in 2060.By looking forward to the development direction of coal,oil,natural gas and other energy minerals,relevant policy recommendations are put forward from three aspects:the first is to strengthen the top-level design of the development and utilization of domestic energy minerals;the second is to vigorously improve the independent supply capacity of domestic oil and gas resources;the third is to deal with the relationship between carbon peak,carbon neutral target constraints and energy security.