基于数值模拟法与油藏开发经营一体化思想的页岩油藏经济决策研究

Economic decision of shale reservoir based on numerical simulation and integration of reservoir development and management

页岩油开发前期的投资大且采收率较低,经济损失风险较大。因此,需要结合不同开发方式对其进行经济决策研究。对此,基于数值模拟法与油藏开发经营一体化的思想,首先建立经济决策体系与油价指标预测,再通过多种数值模拟方案组合优选,完善了一套针对不同阶段、不同油价下的开发方式选择的新方法。以大港油田沧东凹陷孔二段页岩油为例,进行了不同整体开发方案指标预测,最后基于油藏开发经营一体化思想进行了不同国际油价下的开发方案优选。通过对比单一开采方案与组合式开采方案的累计净现值的变化,发现采收率较高的单一开采方式不一定为经济最优方案,最终得出了不同油价区间的最具经济效益的开发方案,形成了一套页岩油藏经济高效开发方案的优选方法。

In the early stage of shale oil development,the investment is large and the recovery factor is low,bringing great risk of economic loss.Therefore,it is necessary to combine different development methods to study its economic decision.To this end,based on the idea of the integration of numerical simulation method and reservoir development and management,firstly,the economic decision-making system and oil price index prediction are established,and then a series of new methods for the selection of development mode at different stages and different oil prices are improved through the combination and optimization of various numerical simulation schemes.Taking the shale oil of Kong-2 Member in Cangdong Sag of Dagang Oilfield as an example,different overall development program indexes are predicted.Finally,based on the idea of reservoir development and management integration,the suitable development programs for different international oil prices are selected.By comparing the changes of the cumulative net present value of the single production plan and the combined production plan,it is found that the single production method with higher recovery factor is not necessarily the economic optimal plan.Finally,the most economical development plan with different oil price ranges is obtained,and a set of optimal method for the economic and efficient development plan of shale reservoir is formed.