淮安市大气颗粒物对儿童呼吸系统疾病的时间序列分析

A time-series study of atmospheric particulate matter and respiratory diseases in children in Huai’an City

目的了解淮安市大气细颗粒物(PM_(2.5))、可吸入颗粒物(PM_(10))对儿童呼吸系统疾病的影响,为空气污染影响儿童呼吸疾病发生的早期预防提供参考依据。方法收集2018年淮安市气象、环保及淮安市第一人民医院儿科个案门诊数据,采用Possion分布广义相加模型(GAM)分析大气颗粒物与儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量的关系。结果 2018年淮安市大气PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)的年平均浓度分别为51.64和86.10μg/m^(3),均超过国家环境空气质量2级标准,Spearman相关分析发现PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)日均质量浓度与儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量均呈正相关(均P<0.05)。广义相加模型结果显示,PM_(2.5)在lag0 d~lag2 d和累积lag01 d~lag05 d对儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),PM_(10)在lag0 d、lag1 d和累积lag01 d~lag05 d对儿科呼吸系统疾病门诊量的影响差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05),PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)日浓度每升高10μg/m3,暴露效应均在当日达到最大值,健康风险增加分别为0.75%和0.59%,累积效应PM_(2.5)在累积滞后5 d(lag05 d)和PM_(10)在累积滞后2 d(lag02 d)效应达到最大值,健康风险增加分别为1.17%和0.82%。结论淮安市PM_(2.5)与PM_(10)浓度的升高会导致儿童呼吸系统疾病的发生,并且PM_(2.5)对儿童健康影响的滞后效应要强于PM_(10)。

Objective To explore the effect of the fine particles(PM_(2.5))and inhalable particulate matter(PM_(10))on respiratory diseases in children in Huai’an City,provide reference for the early prevention of children’s respiratory diseases affected by air pollution.Methods The meteorological and environmental data in Huai’an City in 2018,and the outpatient data of pediatric cases in the Huai’an First People’s Hospital were collected.Possion distribution generalized additive model(GAM)were used to analyse the relationship between the atmospheric particulate matter and outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory diseases.Results The average annual concentration of PM_(2.5)and PM_(10) in Huai’an City in 2018 was 51.64 and 86.10μg/m^(3) respectively,which exceeded the national ambient air quality standard level 2.Spearman correlation analysis showed that the average daily mass concentrations of PM_(2.5)and PM_(10) were positively correlated to outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory diseases(P<0.05).The results of generalized additive model showed that the differences in the effect of lag0 d-lag2 d and cumulative lag01 d-lag05 d of PM_(2.5)on outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory diseases was statistically significant(all P<0.05).The differences in the effect of lag0 d,lag1 d and cumulative lag01 d-lag05 d of PM_(10) on outpatient volume of pediatric respiratory diseases was statistically significant(all P<0.05).When the daily concentration of PM_(2.5)and PM_(10) increased by 10μg/m3,the exposure effect reached the maximum on the same day,and the health risk increased by 0.75%and 0.59%respectively.The cumulative effect reached the maximum when lag05 d of PM_(2.5)and lag02 d of PM_(10),and the health risk increased by 1.17%and 0.82%respectively.Conclusion The increase of PM_(2.5)and PM_(10) concentration in Huai’an City can lead to the occurrence of respiratory diseases in children,and the lag effect of PM_(2.5)on children’s health is stronger than PM_(10).