中国中长期能源消费发展预测研究

Research on China’s Medium and Long-term Energy Consumption Development Forecast

中国是全球最大的能源生产国和消费国,2020年能源消费总量达到49.8×10^(8)tce。能源消费发展预测研究是能源经济学的重要组成部分,模型预测及其成果是国家编制能源规划和制定能源政策的基础。进入21世纪以来,中国能源消费预测的数字化、模型化、定量化盛行。通过文献研究,能源消费预测方法和模型可以分为单一方法预测模型和组合方法预测模型。结合中国21世纪前20年能源消费情况,就各类能源消费预测模型的特点及预测结果精度进行分析研究,发现中国中长期能源消费预测的偏差普遍较大,组合方法预测模型优于单一预测方法模型。建议中国中长期能源消费预测应综合运用各种预测方法,以定性和静态的情景分析类预测模式为主,辅以定量和动态的趋势外推类预测方式。采用情景分析法预测,中国2050年能源消费总量为47.79×10^(8)tce。

China is the world’s largest energy producer and consumer.In 2020,the total energy consumption will reach 49.8×10^(8)tce.Energy consumption development forecast research is an important part of energy economics.Model forecasts and their results are the basis for the country to formulate energy plans and energy policies.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,the digitization,modeling,and quantification of China’s energy consumption forecast have prevailed.Through literature research,energy consumption forecasting methods and models can be divided into single method forecasting models and combined method forecasting models.Combining China’s energy consumption in the first 20 years of the 21 st century,the characteristics of various energy consumption forecasting models and the accuracy of forecast results were analyzed.It is found that the deviation of China’s medium and long-term energy consumption forecasts is generally large.In comparison,the combined forecasting model is better than the single forecasting method model.It is suggested that China’s medium and long-term energy consumption forecast should comprehensively use various forecasting methods,mainly based on qualitative and static scenario analysis forecasting models,supplemented by quantitative and dynamic trend extrapolation forecasting methods.Using scenario analysis,China’s total energy consumption in 2050 will be 47.79×10^(8)tce.