基于LOGISTIC模型的煤炭发债企业信用风险影响因素研究

Research on influencing factors of credit risk of coal bond issuing enterprises based on LOGISTIC model

从煤炭行业发债企业信用风险成因出发,提出采用Logistic模型对我国94家煤炭发债企业进行二分类回归分析,构建煤炭行业发债企业信用风险大小的模型。根据SPSS25.0结合比分检验和似然比检验的结果发现,影响企业违约概率发生的因素不仅包括宏观层面的地区CPI指数(回归系数为2.688),还包括微观层面的流动比率(回归系数为-1.567)、存货周转率(回归系数为-0.173)以及资产规模(回归系数为-1.894)。通过煤炭行业发债企业信用风险影响因素的识别与分析,以期为投资方、企业债权人和政府对企业未来信用风险提供参考、判断的依据。

Starting from the causes of credit risk of bond issuing companies in the coal industry,this paper proposes to use Logistic model to conduct binary regression analysis on 94 coal bond issuing companies in China,and construct a model to obtain the credit risk of bond issuing companies in the coal industry.According to the results of SPSS25.0 combined with the score test and the likelihood ratio test,it is found that factors affecting the occurrence of corporate default probability not only include the macro-level regional CPI index(regression coefficient is 2.688),it also includes the micro-level current ratio(regression coefficient-1.567),inventory turnover rate(regression coefficient-0.173),and asset size(regression coefficient-1.894).Through the identification and analysis of factors affecting credit risk of bond-issuing enterprises in the coal industry,it is expected to provide investors,corporate creditors and the government with a basis for reference and judgment on the future credit risks of enterprises.