基于滨海环境资源特点的大连旅游承载状态评价

Evaluation of Tourism Carrying Capacity in Dalian Based on Characteristics of Coastal Environmental Resources

旅游环境承载力涉及多维度属性相互制约影响,而传统方法中对于各属性间影响程度及游客偏好选择的判定则较多依赖于个体的主观感知。因此,针对处理多属性综合评价中存在的模糊性及主观性,提出基于蒙特卡罗模拟修正的模糊综合评价模型。结果表明,借助上述模糊综合评价修正模型针对大连滨海旅游环境承载力进行解释与分析,成功缓解了在模型度量与数据分析环节所出现的主观偏误缺陷,从而有效提升了大连市滨海旅游景区有关阈值综合评价体系的科学性与稳健性。评价结果表明,当前大连市滨海旅游环境承载力状态可以判定为"适载";在影响滨海旅游环境承载力的6项要素中,游憩环境要素与气候要素的评价分数较高,最低评分数值指标为景区游客管理状态。

The carrying capacity of tourism environment involves multi-dimensional attributes with the mutual restriction and influence on each other. By comparison, traditional methods are more dependent on the subjective perception of individuals in determining the degree of influence among attributes and the preference of tourists. It collected regional-level data from 54 coastal tourism areas in Dalian for questionnaire-investigation in 2014 and 2015, which respondents’ results of 25 indicators belonging to 6 different dimensions including natural attributes, location climate, quality of coastal resources, coastal recreations, other recreations, and management indicators. In order to avoid the subjectivity of data analysis, the Monte Carlo simulation provided triangle distribution to confirm the pair-wise comparisons of original and modified weights, and modified weights can also correct indicator ranking. Monte Carlo simulation contributes to adjust weights of 17 different indicators, indicating that relying only on the traditional questionnaire data statistics and measurement method will inevitably lead to some errors in the original weight. For example, the location-weather attribute(Sunlight C6),ranked 8 th in the original weight ranking, was corrected by the Monte Carlo simulation to be ranked 12 th in ranking of importance. Although there are some slight changes in the numerical value, the ranking of dimension still remains stable, the ranking of current situation is listed as follows: coastal recreation >location climate>other recreations >natural attributes>quality of coastal resources > management carrying capacity. In terms of evaluation, current situation of carrying capacity of Dalian can be judged as ‘suitable’. Dimensions of coastal recreations and location climate have relatively higher scores, the former one includes recreational activities related with coastal resources and environmental factors, such as sightseeing cruise ship and aquarium, and scores of evaluations indicates Dalian has a competitive advantage on the characteristics of coastal resources. Additionally, for those ‘basically satisfied’ dimensions, the evaluation results can lead relative departments to renovate and improve on future management and performance. At the same time, the revised result information provides some theoretical inspiration and practical reference for relevant departments to formulate the forward-looking construction planning and systematic governance mechanism of coastal tourism scenic spots.