基于云模型—风险矩阵的华南台风灾害综合等级评估

Comprehensive Grade Assessment of Typhoon Disaster in South China Based on Cloud Model-Risk Matrix

文中从台风灾害的致灾危险性和承灾体脆弱性两方面选取评价指标,利用最小鉴别信息原理计算组合权重,采用模糊数学方法得到台风致灾危险性和承灾体脆弱性的评价指数。基于云模型和风险矩阵,构建一个新的台风灾害等级评估模型。以1984—2016年登陆华南的50个台风为例,对华南台风灾害风险进行综合等级评估,结果与实际相符。与基于云模型—权重分配、模糊数学的台风灾害综合风险等级评估模型的结果进行比较,发现基于云模型—风险矩阵的台风灾害综合等级评估模型,不仅利用了云模型的优点,充分考虑了台风灾害的模糊性和随机性,还利用风险矩阵合成了台风致灾危险性和承灾体脆弱性的评价结果,比单一的模糊数学模型更合理可靠,在一定程度上也比云模型—权重分配模型结果更符合实际。

In this paper,the evaluation indexes were selected from two aspects of typhoon disaster risk and the vulnerability of disaster-bearing body,the combination weight was calculated by the principle of minimum discriminant information,and the evaluation index of typhoon disaster risk and vulnerability was obtained by fuzzy mathematics method.Based on cloud model and risk matrix,a new typhoon disaster grade assessment model was constructed.Taking 50 typhoons in South China from 1984 to 2016 as cases,the comprehensive grade of typhoon disasters in South China was evaluated,and the evaluation results were in good agreement with the reality.Compared with the evaluation results of cloud model-weight distribution model and fuzzy mathematics model,it was found that the typhoon disaster comprehensive grade assessment model based on cloud model-risk matrix not only makes use of the advantages of cloud model,and the fuzziness and randomness of typhoon disasters were fully considered.Moreover,the risk matrix was used to synthesize the evaluation results of typhoon disaster risk and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies.It was more reasonable and reliable than a single fuzzy mathematical model,and to a certain extent,the result was more in line with the reality than the cloud model-weight distribution model.