基于Nerlove模型的中国猪肉供给影响因素分析

The Influencing Factors of Pork Supply in China Based on Nerlove Model

为了解影响猪肉供给的主要因素,稳定猪肉供给,基于2001—2019年全国19个生猪主产区的面板数据,研究滞后一期的猪肉产量、猪肉价格、鸡肉价格和玉米价格对猪肉供给的影响。引入时间趋势变量和非洲猪瘟疫情,综合分析各因素对猪肉供给的影响。借助Nerlove模型进行实证分析,结果显示,滞后一期的猪肉产量、猪肉价格、鸡肉价格、玉米价格、时间趋势变量和非洲猪瘟疫情对当期猪肉供给均有显著影响。在此基础上,提出稳定猪肉供给的政策建议。

In order to understand the main factors that affect pork supply and stabilize pork supply,studies the effects of pork production,pork prices,chicken prices and corn prices on pork supply in the lagging period on pork supply based on panel data from 19 major pig producing areas across the country from 2001 to 2019.By introducing time trend variables and African swine fever,comprehensively analyze the impact of various factors on pork supply.Empirical analysis with the aid of the Nerlove model shows that the pork production,pork prices,chicken prices,corn prices,time trend variables and the African swine fever epidemic have a significant impact on the current pork supply.On this basis,policy recommendations for stabilizing pork supply are put forward.