管理者过度自信与企业牛鞭效应

Managerial Overconfidence and Bullwhip Effect

本文从管理会计的视角出发,利用沪深两市A股上市公司2007—2017年的数据,研究管理者过度自信对企业牛鞭效应的影响。研究发现:管理者过度自信会加剧企业的牛鞭效应。本文利用中介效应模型,进一步探讨管理者过度自信是否会通过供应商选择路径和存货管理路径影响企业牛鞭效应。管理者过度自信程度越高.企业供应商集中度越高,存货持有量越多,存货周转越慢,企业牛鞭效应越显著。此外,管理者过度自信对牛鞭效应的影响在国有企业中更加显著.而良好的内部控制和分析师跟踪可以减弱管理者过度自信对牛鞭效应的影响。本文丰富了管理者过度自信经济后果的研究,也为牛鞭效应的影响因素提供了行为财务方面的解释。

From the perspective of management accounting,this paper uses data from 2007 to 2017 of A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to study the impact of managerial overconfidence on the bullwhip effect of enterprises.The study finds that managerial overconfidence would exacerbate the bullwhip effect of enterprises.Further,using the mediation effect model to explore the influence of managerial overconfidence on the bullwhip effect,it shows that managerial overconfidence affects the bullwhip effect through supplier selection and inventory management.The higher the degree of managerial overconfidence,the higher the supplier concentration in the enterprise,the more inventory holdings,and the slower the turnover,the more significant the bullwhip effect of the enterprise.In addition,the influence of managerial overconfidence on the bullwhip effect is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises,while good internal control and analyst tracking can weaken the influence of managerial overconfidence on the bullwhip effect.This paper enriches the research on the economic consequences of managerial overconfidence,and finds new evidence for the study of the influencing factors of bullwhip effect.It has certain practical significance for the operation and management of enterprises.