税率不确定性与企业投资决策

Tax Rate Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Decision

已有文献主要考察税率变动和税率本身高低对企业投资决策活动的影响,鲜有文献研究税率不确定性对投资行为的影响。鉴于我国各地税收优惠政策及税收征管强度的差异和变化使得公司的税率存在较大的不确定性,探讨中国的税率不确定性对投资决策的影响显得尤为重要。本文研究发现:税率不确定性越大,公司投资支出降低得越明显,而且显著抑制过度投资行为。进一步地,当公司上一期的税率处于波峰、融资约束较高时,这种抑制作用更加显著;而政府补助、产业政策优惠则会弱化这种负相关关系。本文结论补充和拓展了以往关于投资理论的研究,不仅对企业的投资决策和政府部门的税收管理具有重要参考意义,也响应了中共十九大关于深化投资改革和税收制度改革的精神。

There have been literatures mainly about the impact of tax rate changes and the level of tax rate itself on the company’ s investment decision-making activities,but few literatures have studied the impact of tax rate uncertainty on investment behavior.Due to the differences and changes in tax preferential policies and intensity of tax collection and administration in different regions of China,there is a great uncertainty in corporate tax rate.Therefore,it is particularly important to study the impact of tax rate uncertainty in China on investment decisions.The study found that the greater the uncertainty of corporate tax rate,the significantly lower the investment expenditure, and significantly impede the over-investment behavior.Furthermore,when the corporate tax rate of the last period was at the peak,financing constraints were high in the last period,the inhibiting effect was more significant.Government subsidy and industrial policy preference weaken the negative correlation.The conclusion of this paper complements and expands the previous research on the investment theory,which not only has important reference significance for the investment decision-making of enterprises and the tax management of government departments,but also responds to the spirit of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China on deepening the investment reform and tax system reform.