中国与RCEP伙伴国的贸易效率和潜力探析——基于SFA模型的测度

A Study on the Trade Potential and Trade Efficiency between China and RCEP Partner Countries:with Measurement Based on SFA Model

RCEP的签署为充分挖掘中国与RCEP伙伴国的贸易效率和潜力提供了可能。随机前沿引力模型结果显示:一方面,中国对RCEP伙伴国出口贸易量基本上达到了出口贸易前沿水平的一半,双边贸易效率仍处于较低水平,但双边贸易潜力巨大。得益于贸易便利化措施和“一带一路”倡议的实施,中国对越南及柬埔寨的双边贸易率尤其是出口贸易效率均有显著提升。另一方面,中国与RCEP伙伴国存在巨大的贸易潜力。2019年中国出口贸易潜力排名前三的国家为日本、菲律宾和澳大利亚,而双边贸易潜力排名前三的国家则为日本、澳大利亚和泰国。为进一步提高贸易效率,激发贸易潜力,中国应鼓励企业积极“走出去”,并加快推进与日本等国双边贸易谈判,深化与RCEP发展中成员的互联互通。

The signing of RCEP provides the possibility to fully tap the trade efficiency and potential between China and RCEP partner countries.The results of the stochastic frontier gravity model show that,on the one hand,China’s export volume to RCEP partner countries has almost reached half of the frontier level of export trade,and the efficiency of bilateral trade is still at a low level,but there is huge potential for bilateral trade.Due to trade facilitation and the implementation of the“One Belt One Road”initiative,China’s bilateral trade rate with Vietnam and Cambodia,especially the efficiency of export trade,has been significantly improved;on the other hand,there is still a huge trade potential between China and RCEP partner countries.In 2019,the top three countries of export trade potential with China are Japan,the Philippines,and Australia,while the top three countries of bilateral trade potential are Japan,Australia,and Thailand.In order to further improve trade efficiency and stimulate trade potential,China should encourage enterprises to actively“go global”,accelerate bilateral trade negotiations with Japan and other countries,and deepen the interconnection with the developing members of RCEP.