“台风-暴雨-洪涝”灾害综合风险评估--以“利奇马”台风为例

Risk Assessment of Typhoon-runoff-Flood Disaster-A Case Study of Typhoon Lekima

2019年“利奇马”台风事件对我国东部沿海地区造成巨大损失,本文以该次台风为例,开展了“台风-暴雨-洪涝”灾害链演进模拟与动态风险评估研究。首先,大范围分析台风暴雨的空间分布特征,并在此基础上,选取浙江灵江流域作为洪涝灾害示例研究区,进一步模拟“暴雨-径流-洪涝”的演进过程。最后,综合考虑洪涝灾害的致灾因子危险性以及承灾体脆弱性,选取淹没水深、人口、建筑、农业等指标构建洪涝灾害风险评估指标体系,建立研究区风险评估模型,绘制洪涝灾害风险等级图。本文研究结果可为“台风-暴雨-洪涝”灾害的防灾减灾工作提供技术参考。

In 2019,the“Lekima”t yphoon c aused huge losses in the eastern c oastal a reas of C hina.It is taken as an example in this article,and its evolution simulation of the“typhoon-storm-f lood”disaster chain is focused to assess its risk dynamically.First,the spatial distribution characteristics of typhoon storms and rains were analyzed on a large scale.Basing on rainstorm intensity,the Ling jiang River Basin in Zhejiang Province is selected as an example area for further simulation of the evolution process of"storm-runofff lood".Finally,comprehensively considering the risk of hazards and the vulnerability,the indicators of flood depth,population,construction,agriculture and other indicators are selected to construct a risk assessment index system,establish a risk assessment model for the study area,and develop a flood disaster risk level map.The results of this paper can provide technical reference for disaster prevention and mitigation of"typhoonrunoff-f lood"disasters.