内蒙古生态安全时空演变特征及驱动力

Analysis of the characteristics and driving forces of the temporal and spatial evolution of ecological security in Inner Mongolia

生态安全是平衡社会经济与自然环境协调发展的重要保障,评价生态安全时空演变及驱动因素,对区域生态安全格局构建及可持续发展意义重大。基于本土化参数的生态足迹模型对1990—2018年内蒙古地区各盟市生态足迹、生态盈亏及生态压力指数进行测算,采用熵权法构建综合指标体系,计算生态安全指数,评价区域生态安全及可持续发展状况,结合空间分析揭示其时空演化规律,并解析驱动因素。结果表明:1)研究期间内蒙古总体上呈“供不应求”的生态赤字状态,但生态承载增速大于生态足迹增速,2018年较1990年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力分别提高了0.9—5.8倍和1.5—10.8倍,生态安全指数由大于5.0的不安全状态转变为小于4.0的安全状态,生态系统总体呈向好趋势发展。2)研究期间内蒙古地区生态足迹呈“东高西低”分布,生态承载力呈“中间高,两翼低”分布,生态安全重心向东北方向转移。3)经济水平、消费支出、产业结构是内蒙古地区生态安全及可持续发展的驱动因素,地理位置和气候因素是导致其空间差异的主导因子。

Ecological security is the basis and premise to ensure the sustainable development of human society and economy.Evaluating the temporal and spatial evolution and influencing factors of ecological security is of great significance to its ecological security pattern construction and regional sustainable development.Based on the localized ecological footprint model,we calculated the ecological footprint,ecological surplus and deficit and ecological stress index of twelve cities across the Inner Mongolia in China from 1990 to 2018.Entropy method was conducted to construct a comprehensive index system,calculating the ecological safety index,and evaluating the state of regional ecological safety and sustainable development.We also combined spatial analysis to reveal its temporal and spatial evolution and analyze the driving factors of temporal and spatial dynamic.The results showed that(1)during the study period,the Inner Mongolia was in a state of ecological deficit,but the growth rate of ecological carrying capacity was greater than that of ecological footprint.In 2018,the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity increased by 0.9—5.8 times and 1.5—10.8 times respectively compared with 1990.The ecological safety index changed from an unsafe state to a safe state,and the value changed from over 5.0 to less than 4.0.The ecological station of whole study area improved.(2)The spatial distribution of ecological footprint indicated a“high in the east and low in the west”situation across the Inner Mongolia.However,the spatial variation of ecological carrying capacity indicated a“high in the middle and low in the two wings”spatial distribution.During the study period,the ecological security center of the study area shifted to the northeast.(3)The economic level,consumption expenditure,and industrial structure are the driving factors for ecological security and sustainable development in the Inner Mongolia.Moreover,geographical location and climate factors are the leading factors for its spatial differences.