中国西部入境旅游流流量与流质时空错位演化

The Evolution of Spatial and Temporal Mismatch of the Quantity and Quality of Inbound Tourism Flow in Western China

掌握中国西部各省(市/区)入境旅游流的量与质的演化状况是促进其增量提质的首要前提。以中国西部1995-2018年入境旅游数据为基础,选取流量位序和流质指数为评价指标,运用重力模型分析流量与流质的演化轨迹及反映是否出现空间错位,使用二维矩阵模型呈现流量与流质的空间错位类型,结果表明:中国西部省际间入境客流规模的差异较大且竞争不断,呈现"两极稳定、中间多变"的演化特点,表现为三种位序演化类型,即基本稳定型、逐步发展型、起伏不定型;流质总体上呈优质旅游流状态并在波动中下降,其波幅在逐渐收窄,演化类型归纳为逐渐下降型、相对稳定型和"双波动"型;入境客流和收入的重心总体都呈西北向东南移动的趋势,并已形成明显的空间错位,收入重心比客流重心平均北移0.52个纬度和左移0.14个经度;流量与流质二维矩阵演化结果显示,同步双高型省份的数量先增后减,同步中间型和同步双低型省份在研究期内均未出现,正向错位型长期存在于4~5个省份内,反向错位型的数量增长迅速。

The peculiar natural environment,splendid national culture,rich products and high strategic position in western China have created positive conditions for tourism development and tourism poverty alleviation.However,due to the complex and diverse natural geographic conditions,the low level of development in history and inconvenient transportation,the economic development of the western region has lagged behind the central and eastern regions of China for a long time and presents a large internal imbalance,and the development of inbound tourism in western China is a typical example.The quantity and quality of tourism flow are important carriers to measure the development status of tourism flow,mastering the evolution of the quantity and quality of inbound tourism flow in the provinces(cities/districts)of western China is the first prerequisite to promote its quantity and quality.Therefore,this paper aims to reveal the temporal and spatial differences and evolution of the quantity and quality of inbound tourism flow in western provinces(cities/districts)of China,arouses the attention of local governments,relevant practitioners and scholars on the plight of inbound tourism development in western China,and then issues favorable policies and puts forward beneficial measures for the development of inbound tourism,so as to promote the gradual prosperity and development of inbound tourism in western China.Based on inbound tourism Panel datas from 1995 to 2018 in western China,the paper selects the quantity’s order and quality index of inbound tourism flow as evaluation indexes,and uses Gravity Model to analyze the evolutionary trajectory of quantity and quality,and reflects whether there is a spatial mismatch,using two-dimensional matrix model to present the spatial mismatch’s type of quantity and quality.The result shows:The scale of interprovincial inbound tourist flow in western China is quite different and the competition is continuous,showing the evolution characteristics of"stable bipolarity and changeable middle",which is manifested in three types of sequence evolution,namely basic stability,gradual development and undulating indefinite.Except for Gansu Province,most provinces(cities/districts)belong to high-quality tourism flow,but the quality of tourism flow is generally in a state of declining in fluctuation which amplitude is gradually narrowing,and the evolutionary types are summarized as the gradually decline,relatively stable and"double fluctuation".The center of gravity of inbound tourist and income both show the trend of moving from northwest to southeast,and it has formed an obvious spatial mismatch.The income center of gravity moves 0.52 latitudes to the north and 0.14 longitudes to the left on average than tourist center of gravity.The evolution results of two-dimensional matrix of quantity and quality show that,the number of synchronous double-high provinces increases first and then decreases,the synchronous intermediate type and synchronous double-low type provinces does not appear during the study period;the positive mismatch type existed in 4~5 provinces for a long time,and the number of reverse mismatch type grous rapidly.The reason is that the quality of tourism flow is lower than the level of quantity in the third time period,which causes nearly 2/3 of the provinces(cities/districts)in western China to reverse dislocation.