“好”政策的执行效果也好吗?——基于容错纠错政策的实证检验

Does Good Policy Mean Good Effect?---Empirical Analysis Based on the Policies of Fault Tolerance and Error Correction

容错纠错是鼓励干部担当、激励干部创新的重要政策设计。那么,“好”政策是否意味着执行效果也好呢?论文通过构建政策效果、政策质量和政策执行力三者间因果联系的理想分析框架,借助PMC指数模型对10项容错纠错政策样本质量进行评估,结合政策效果分析,尝试确定该政策在理想分析框架下的类型归属。研究发现,容错纠错政策整体质量较高,呈现出国家级—省市级—新区级“依次递增”的特征,兼具趋同性与趋异性;容错纠错政策属于理想状态下质量较高但执行效果一般、执行力较弱的政策。可见,容错纠错政策效果并非唯一取决于政策质量,而是受到政策质量和政策执行力的共同影响。该发现印证了完全理性模式在政策制定过程中的局限性,政策制定者应基于有限理性模式进行决策。研究丰富了公共政策理论,为容错纠错政策改进提供了具体的依据和方向。

The mechanism of fault tolerance and error correction is an important policy designed to encourage cadres to take responsibility and to innovate. Does good policy mean good effect? This study constructed an ideal analysis framework for the causal relationships among policy effect,policy quality and policy implementation ability. We used the PMC-index model to evaluate the quality of 10 policy texts on the subjects of fault tolerance and error correction. We then analyzed the policy effect of each in order to determine the type of attribution under the ideal analysis framework. We found the policies of fault tolerance and error correction were of high quality. The quality of these policies increased successively at the national,the provincial,the municipal,and the new area-level,for both similarities and differences. The fault-tolerance and error-correction policies were high-quality,but they had poor effects under the ideal state. Thus,we deduce the implementation of the policies was probably weak.Furthermore,the effect of fault-tolerance and error-correction policies was not only determined by the policy quality,but influenced by both policy quality and policy implementation ability. This finding confirms the limitation of the Complete Rationality Model in the process of policy making,and shows that policy makers should make decisions based on the Bounded Rationality Model. This paper enriches the theory of public policy and provides specific proposals for improving fault tolerance and error correction policies.