黄河流域社会经济与生态环境耦合协调态势及动力因素

Coupling and Coordination Situation and Driving Factors of Social Economy and Eco-environment in Yellow River Basin

[目的]分析黄河流域省区社会经济与生态环境耦合协调态势和驱动机制,为总体布局黄河流域经济带发展战略提供科学依据。[方法]在厘清社会经济与生态环境耦合协调机理的基础上,通过耦合协调模型定量测度2009—2018年黄河流域社会经济与生态环境耦合协调的时空格局及其相对发展情况,并通过固定效应回归模型探究内源动力、政府动力和外向动力的驱动作用。[结果]黄河流域社会经济与生态环境存在发展不充分的现象,综合水平指数整体较小。黄河流域社会经济与生态环境耦合协调值为0.354~0.562,整体上处于磨合阶段,耦合协调情况属于勉强可以接受区间。经济发展水平、政府能力、对外开放程度等对耦合协调度产生积极影响,区域创新水平、产业结构体系对耦合协调度存在显著的负向影响。[结论]在黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展国家战略背景下,应不断加强产业结构优化,提高区域创新成果转化能力,协调并发挥好多种动力因素的叠加效应。

[Objective]The coupling and coordination situation and driving mechanism of the socio-economic and eco-environment in the Yellow River basin were analyzed in order to provide a scientific basis for the overall developmental strategy of the Yellow River Basin Economic Belt.[Methods]On the basis of clarifying the coupling and coordination mechanism of social economy and ecological environment,the coupling coordination model was used to quantitatively measure the temporal and spatial pattern and relative development of the coupling and coordination of social economy and ecological environment in the Yellow River basin from 2009 to 2018.The driving effects of internal,government and external forces were studied through the fixed-effect regression model.[Results]①The development of social economy and ecological environment in the Yellow River basin was insufficient and the overall level index was relatively small.②The coupling and coordination value of the social economy and ecological environment of the Yellow River basin was between 0.354—0.562,which was in the running-in stage as a whole,and the coupling and coordination situation was within a marginally acceptable range.③The level of economic development,government capabilities,and the degree of opening to the outside world had a positive influence on the degree of coupling and coordination,and the level of regional innovation and industrial structure system had a significant negative impact on the degree of coupling and coordination.[Conclusion]In the context of the national strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River basin,it is necessary to continuously strengthen the optimization of the industrial structure,improve the ability of transforming regional innovation achievements,as well as coordinate and give full play to the superimposed effect of multiple driving factors.