疫情期间免收公路通行费对煤炭公路运价的影响分析

The Impact of Toll-Free Policy on Coal Highway Freight During the COVID-19 Epidemic Period

2020年2月15日交通运输部宣布,经国务院同意,自2月17日0时起至防控疫情工作结束为止,全国各收费公路免收车辆通行费。在此背景下,通过分析该免收通行费政策实施前后山西省煤炭公路运价的变化,以此探究免收收费公路通行费政策对公路运价的实际影响。运用间断时间序列和线性回归分析了2018年11月至2020年6月期间山西省煤炭公路运价的趋势变化。结果表明,免收收费公路通行费政策对公路运价影响显著。同时对这次免收通行费政策带来的问题提出了政策建议,为后续价格政策的临时变动提供参考依据。

On February 15, 2020, the Ministry of Transport announced that with the approval of the State Council, vehicles will be exempt from tolls on turnpikes across the country, from 0:00 on February 17 to the end of the epidemic prevention and control. Through the analysis of the changes in coal highway tariffs in Shanxi Province before and after the implementation of the toll-free policy during the epidemic period, the actual impact of the toll-free policy on road tariffs is explored. Interrupted Time Series Analysis and linear regression are used in this article to analyze the trend of coal highway transportation prices in Shanxi Province from November 2018 to June 2020. The results show that the policy of cancelling tolls has a significant impact on the decline of road freight rates. At the same time, policy making recommendations are made for the problems caused by the toll waiving policy, which can provide reference for the subsequent temporary changes of price policy.