基于蒙特卡洛模拟的秸秆资源统计方法

Statistical Methods of Straw Resources Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

为了更加准确地使用草谷比法估算秸秆资源量,为生物质发电厂的立项选址提供可靠的数据支撑,基于玉米和水稻秸秆构建了秸秆可收集量计算模型。在拟合草谷比、副产物系数、秸秆含水量、粮食亩产、秸秆株高、留茬高度和运输损失分布函数基础上,通过蒙特卡洛模拟计算单位面积秸秆可收集量的分布函数和均值。结果表明,玉米秸秆可收集量服从对数正态分布,可收集量的平均值为0.496 kg/m^(2),标准偏差为0.144;水稻秸秆可收集量服从对数正态分布,可收集量的平均值为0.578 kg/m^(2),标准偏差0.136,模拟分析结果与实地调研的经验数据吻合性较好,可为生物质发电厂秸秆燃料统计方法提供参考。

In order to estimate the number of straw resources using the straw-to-grain ratio method more accurately,and provide reliable data support for the project site selection of biomass power plants,corn and rice straw are used as examples to build a straw collection calculation model.Based on the fitting distribution function of 7 calculation parameters(straw-to-grain ratio,process residue index,straw moisture content,grain production per hectare,straw plant height,stubble height and transportation loss),the Monte-Carlo simulation is used to calculate the collectable amount and the distribution function.The results show that the collectable amount of corn straw follows a logarithmic normal distribution.The average collectable amount per square meters is 0.496 kg,with a standard deviation of 0.144.The collectable amount of rice straw follows a logarithmic normal distribution.The average value of the collected quantity is 0.578 kg,and the standard deviation is 0.136.The simulation analysis results are in good agreement with the empirical data of field investigation.The calculation model can more accurately calculate the amount of straw that can be collected.At the same time,Monte-Carlo simulation can make accurate predictions.The results can provide some references for the statistical methods of straw fuel in biomass power plants.