2005~2019年包头市水痘流行病学特征分析及发病趋势预测

Analysis on epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of varicella,Baotou city,2005-2019

目的了解包头市2005~2019年水痘发病流行病学特征,短期预测2020~2022年发病趋势,为包头市水痘防控提供参考依据。方法描述性流行病学方法和自回归滑动平均混合(ARIMA)模型。结果15年间共报告水痘8661例,年均发病率20.46/10万,年度发病率差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。包头市水痘高发季节在每年的5、6和11月至次年1月份,其中,11月至次年1月发病数高于5、6月。5~15岁的学生为高发人群,并且市区发病数高于外围旗县。差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。2020~2022年包头市水痘与2019年相比将会呈下降态势,但是如果从80%置信区间和95%置信区间看,不排除高发的可能。结论包头市水痘近两年高发,应制定针对性防控措施,降低水痘发病率。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Baotao city during 2005-2019,and short-term forecast the incidence trend from 2020 to 2022,so as to provide reference for prevention and control of varicella in Baotao city.Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods and ARIMA model.Results A total of 8661 cases of varicella were reported during the 15 years period,with an average annual incidence of 20.46/105,and the difference in annual incidence was statistically significant(P<0.05).Yearly incidence peaked in May-June and November-next January in Baotao city.The incidence from November to January of the following year was higher than that in May and June.Students aged 5-15 years old were the high incidence population,and the incidence in urban areas was higher than that in peripheral counties,the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).From 2020 to 2022,the number of varicella cases in Baotou city will decrease compared with that in 2019.However,from the perspective of 80%confidence interval and 95%confidence interval,the possibility of high incidence is not excluded.Conclusion The incidence of varicella was high in Baotou city in the past 2 years,targeted prevention and control measures should be formulated to reduce the incidence of varicella.