基于灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的上海市最低工资标准预测研究

Application of Gray Metabolism GM(1,1)Model on Prediction of Minimum Wage Standard in Shanghai

最低工资制度的建立是我国构建和谐劳动关系的一个重要制度,开展最低工资预测具有重要意义.以上海市为例,基于灰色系统理论和方法,构建最低工资标准的常规GM(1,1)模型和灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,对未来短期内上海市最低工资标准进行预测研究,预测结果符合上海市政府提出的平稳调整最低工资标准目标.通过对上海市最低工资标准的拟合和预测,为政府和企业制定相关决策提供科学合理的依据,具有一定的理论意义和现实意义.

The establishment of the minimum wage system is an important social institution for building harmonious labor relations in China.It is of great significance to carry out minimum wage prediction.Taking Shanghai as an example,the conventional GM(1,1)model and gray metabolism GM(1,1)model were established to predict the minimum wage standard of Shanghai in the short term based on the gray system theory and method.The prediction result is in line with the Shanghai government’s goal of smoothly adjusting the minimum wage standard.Through the fitting and forecasting of the minimum wage standard in Shanghai,it can provide a scientific and reasonable basis for the government and enterprises to make relevant decisions,which has great theoretical and practical significance.