高速公路PPP项目利率保障及其期权价值分析

Interest rate guarantee and option value analysis of highway PPP(Public-Private Partnerships)projects

高速公路项目因建设成本较高,贷款融资是其必要的融资方式。市场利率超预期的波动将极大地影响项目债务成本,从而影响收益。通过分析利率风险对项目债务成本的影响,根据"风险共担,收益共享"的原则,提出了包含利率补偿和成本节省共享的利率保障方法。在实物期权理论的基础上通过仿真分析了利率保障的期权价值及其影响因素。研究发现,利率保障能够有效缓解利率风险,且可通过协商调节期望利率值,实现双方共赢。另外,利率波动率和负债率对利率保障支出的影响较大,在事前评估时应充分考虑这些因素的情况。

Due to the high construction cost of highway projects,loan financing is the necessary way of financing.The fluctuation of market interest rate beyond expectation will greatly affect the cost of project debt,thus affecting the profit.By analyzing the impact of interest rate risk on project debt cost,according to the principle of"risk sharing,profit sharing",this paper puts forward the interest rate guarantee method including interest rate compensation and interest rate lower limit cost saving sharing.Based on the real option theory,the paper analyzes the option value of interest rate guarantee and its influencing factors by simulation.It is found that interest rate guarantee can effectively mitigate interest rate risk,and adjust the expected interest rate value through negotiation,so as to achieve a win-win situation for both sides.In addition,interest rate volatility and debt ratio have a great impact on interest rate guarantee expenditure.Therefore,these factors should be fully considered in advance evaluation.