考虑恐慌特性的老年人疏散仿真研究

Simulation Study on Evacuation of Elderly Considering Panic Characteristics

通过整理现有研究成果,发现正常人与老年人混合疏散时,老年人的行为特点对群体疏散的影响研究较少。首先通过宁波两个老旧小区共178份问卷调查,分析得到老年人的疏散具有滞后性、跟从性、人群恐慌性的特点。在地场元胞自动机的基础上,提出恐慌场概念,建立了老年人群疏散模型,经过数值模拟,结果表明,当人群疏散总密度低于0.2时,老年人所占比例对总体疏散产生的影响不大,当人群密度达到0.4时,老年人所占比例仅0.3即对整体疏散带来较大影响,并随着老年人密度的增加,整体疏散时间显著增加。研究结果对老年人出入较多的公众场所流量设计具有现实意义。

Through sorting out the existing research results, it is found that when the normal people and the elderly are mixed evacuation, there is less research on the influence of the behavior characteristics of the elderly on the group evacuation. Firstly, 178 questionnaires were collected from two old residential areas in Ningbo. The results show that the evacuation of the elderly has the characteristics of lagging, following and panic. On the basis of floor-field cellular automata, the concept of panic field was introduced, and the evacuation model with older population was established. Through numerical simulation, the results show that when the crowd evacuation total density is lower than 0.2, the proportion of older people has little impact on overall evacuation, and when the crowd density reaches 0.4, the proportion of the elderly is only 0.3, which has a great impact on the overall evacuation, and with the increase of density of the elderly, overall evacuation time increases significantly. The results of this study have practical significance for the design of traffic flow in public places with more elderly visitors.