我国卫生资源配置效率评价及预测研究

Study on Evaluation and Prediction of Health Resource Allocation Efficiency in China

目的:评价2009—2019年我国卫生资源配置效率,预测“十四五”期间卫生资源需求。方法:采用DEA-BCC和Malmquist指数模型分析卫生资源配置效率,通过灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测“十四五”期间卫生资源需求。结果:2009—2019年我国卫生资源配置的综合效率均值为0.998,整体处于良好水平,但省际间差异显著;各年度卫生资源配置的全要素生产率均值为0.994,技术进步率对卫生资源配置效率的影响显著;预测“十四五”期间,我国卫生资源投入产出指标均呈逐年增长态势。结论:平衡省际间卫生资源配置总量,在提高卫生资源配置效率的同时,兼顾公平性,推动后发地区医疗技术的提升,促进卫生资源的优化配置。

Objective To evaluate the efficiency of health resource allocation in China from 2009 to 2019 and predict the demand for health resources during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period.Methods This paper uses DEA-BCC and Malmquist Index Model to analyze the efficiency of health resource allocation and predict the demand for health resources during the"14th Five-Year Plan"by using the grey prediction model GM(1,1).Results The average comprehensive efficiency of health resource allocation in China from 2009 to 2019 is 0.998,which is at a good level as a whole,but there are significant differences among provinces.The average total factor productivity of health resource allocation in each year is 0.994 and the rate of technological progress has a significant impact on the efficiency of health resource allocation.Conclusion It is necessary to balance the total amount of inter-provincial allocation of health resources,improve the efficiency of health resource allocation and take into account fairness,promote the improvement of medical technology in underdeveloped areas.