新形势下跨境资本流动管理研究

Research on the Management of Cross Border Capital Flow under the New Situation

资本跨境流动具有两面性,既可推动国际资金在全球范围内灵活配置和全球经济增长,跨境资本又具有逐利性、顺周期和易超调等三大特点,短期内跨境资本大规模无序跨境流动又对经济金融带来较大冲击。面对2020年以来新冠疫情持续影响,以美国为引领与示范下的各国均采取了较为宽松的财政和货币政策,以增强流动性和恢复市场信心。目前我国监管重点主要是与实体经济和金融市场背离的投机性交易,短期投机资本的趋利性、境内外利差和资产价格诱惑力较大,中国将会吸引更多的跨境资本流出入。对此,我国应运用宏观调控、监管干预和市场行业自律等科学方法,来管理和控制跨境资本无序流动和风险聚集可能带来的金融风险。

Cross border capital flow has two sides,which can not only promote the flexible allocation of international capital and global economic growth,but also has four characteristics:profit seeking,pro cyclical and easy to overshoot.In the short term,large-scale and disorderly cross-border capital flow will bring great impact on economy and finance.Faced with the continuing impact of COVID-19 since 2020,countries under the guidance and demonstration of the United States have adopted a more lenient fiscal and monetary policy to enhance liquidity and restore market confidence.At present,China’s regulatory focus is mainly on speculative transactions that deviate from the real economy and financial market.The short-term speculative capital is more profit oriented,domestic and foreign interest rate differentials and asset prices are more attractive.China will attract more cross-border capital flows in and out.Therefore,China should use scientific methods such as macro-control,regulatory intervention and market industry self-discipline,To manage and control the possible financial risks caused by the disorderly flow of cross-border capital and risk aggregation.