河北省邢台市重点小城镇发展评估与分析

Development Evaluation and Analysis of Key Small Towns in Xingtai City of Hebei Province

为了更好地发挥重点小城镇在城镇化和带动乡村发展的过程中的示范作用,我国现阶段重点小城镇的综合发展水平及相关发展阻力值得被探究。本文以河北省邢台市为例,首先利用运用元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)中的SLEUTH模型以模拟土地利用变化,从用地扩展和城市扩张的角度分析重点小城镇未来的发展趋势。其次运用层次分析法,建立评价指标体系对17个重点小城镇的发展情况进行综合性评估。两种量化分析方法分别从现状评估和未来预测的方向对邢台市重点小城镇的发展问题与阻碍进行剖析和总结。并结合县域经济水平,从城镇规模、空间布局、等级结构等角度提出重点小城镇的未来发展和规划建议。

The key towns are the crucial points of small town construction and development.In order to better play the exemplary role of key small towns in the process of urbanization and rural development,the comprehensive development level and related development resistance of key small towns in China at the present stage are worth exploring.Taking Xingtai City of Hebei province as an example,the SLEUTH model of Cellular Automata(CA)was first used to simulate land use change,and the future development trend of key small towns was analyzed from the perspective of land use and urban expansion.Secondly,analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is used to establish evaluation index system to comprehensively evaluate the development of 17 key small towns.Two quantitative analysis methods are used to analyze and summarize the development problems and obstacles of key small towns in Xingtai from the perspectives of current situation assessment and future prediction.Combined with the level of county economy,the paper puts forward some suggestions on the future development and planning of key small towns from the perspectives of town size,spatial layout and hierarchical structure.