云南小粒咖啡干旱风险评估

Evaluation of Drought Risk of Coffee arabica in Yunnan Province

为研究干旱灾害对云南小粒咖啡产业发展的影响,构建了云南小粒咖啡干旱风险评估模型,并结合Arcgis空间分析工具等,对云南小粒咖啡干旱风险状况进行评估,结果显示:(1)云南中部及以北大部地区小粒咖啡干旱危险性等级较高,西南大部较低,开花期降水量是主要影响因子;(2)滇东南大部小粒咖啡可种植区脆弱性等级较高,其余地区总体偏低,河网密度是主要影响因素;(3)滇中及以北大部地区小粒咖啡气候适宜性等级较低,干旱暴露度较低,而滇西南地区则相反;(4)云南哀牢山以东以北小粒咖啡干旱风险等级较高,各大流域河谷地区以高风险等级为主,滇西南大部小粒咖啡主产区以中低风险等级为主,开花期降水量偏少是主要原因,云南部分优质产区为中高风险区,需要加强灌溉管理。

A drought risk assessment model for Yunnan arabica coffee was established in combination of ArcGis,a spatial analyst tool,to assess the drought risk of Coffea arabica in Yunnan province to analyze the impact of drought disaster on the development of Yunnan arabica coffee industry.The results indicated that Coffee arabica is at the highest level of drought risk in the central and northern Yunnan,and is lower at the drought risk in most parts of the southwest.Rainfall during flowering is the main influencing factor.The vulnerability level of the place where most coffee arabica can be grown is higher in parts of the southeastern Yunnan,and generally lower in the other areas.Drainage density is the main factor.The climatic suitability level of coffee arabica is the lowest in most parts of the central and northern Yunnan,and the drought exposure is lower in these parts,but it is opposite in the southwestern Yunnan.The drought risk of coffee arabica is the highest in the east and north of Ailao Mountains of Yunnan province.The valley areas in the major drainage basins are mainly in high risk.The main coffee arabica producing areas in southwestern Yunnan are mainly at the low and medium levels of drought risk,which is mainly caused by the low precipitation during the flowering period.Some high-quality production areas in Yunnan are located in the medium and high-risk areas,and the irrigation management should be enhanced.