农民预期收入与种植结构和农业投入的关系研究——以福建省为例

The Relationship Between Farmers Income Expectations and Planting Structure,Input in Agriculture:A Study in Fujian Province

发展富民乡村产业、丰富农民收入多样性,是发展乡村产业、促进农民增收的有效途径。福建省作为一个自然条件丰富的省份,研究福建省农村居民预期收入与非粮作物种植结构、农业投入之间的相互关系,具有理论和现实意义。采用自适应预期模型与Cobb-Douglas模型研究了2000—2018年的相关数据,得出以下结论:政府在农业方面支出对农民预期收入影响系数短期为0.0849,长期为0.5683;经济作物的种植结构对农民预期收入影响系数短期为0.2655,长期为1.3686;增加茶叶、蔬菜以及甘蔗种植面积以及固定资产投资,会对种植结构改进带来正向积极的影响。应该持续加强政府对农业农村事物方面的支出,保障农业设施的改善,合理调整作物种植结构,主要发展茶叶、特色蔬菜以及甘蔗等经济作物产业。

Developing rural industries of benefitting farmers and increasing the diversity of farmers'income is an effective way to develop rural industry and increase farmers'income.Fujian is a province with good natural conditions.It is of theoretical and practical significance to study the relationship between the expected income of rural residents and the planting structure of non-food crops and agricultural input.Based on the data from 2000 to 2018,this paper used the adaptive expectation model and the Cobb-Dauglas Production Function model.The results show:first,the farmers'expected income is significantly affected by the government's expenditure on agriculture,with a short-term impact coefficient of 0.0849 and a long-term impact coefficient of 0.5683.Second,the planting structure of cash crops also has a significant impact on farmers'expected income,with a short-term impact coefficient of 0.2655 and a long-term impact coefficient of 1.3686.Third,increasing the planting area and investment in agricultural fixed assets of tea,vegetables and sugarcane would have a positive impact on the improvement of planting structure.Fujian province should continue increasing investment in agriculture rural infrastructure to improve the agricultural facilities,and prioritize tea,special vegetable,sugarcane and other special industries.