蝴蝶效应与疫病全球化

Butterfly Effect and Epidemic Globalization

蝴蝶效应以隐喻的方式强调了对初始条件敏感依赖的动力学演化系统的基本特征。此类系统具有不确定性分形与嬗变的复杂性特征。2020年初以来爆发的全球性新冠疫情就具有类似蝴蝶效应的复杂性。针对新冠疫情的特征和传播方式及其给我们提供的反思和启迪,我们应该采取相应对策:尽快建立、健全和完善覆盖全民的防控医疗体系;改变我们的某些习惯性聚集方式,使其更具有健康合理性;培养生态文明意识,制定相应的法律法规,保护好环境;改变单纯追求大城市、超大城市规模建设的传统发展模式;尽量减少或改变封闭性生活环境;加强国际合作,共同抗疫,构建人类卫生健康共同体。

The butterfly effect emphasizes metaphorically the basic characteristics of a dynamic evolution system that is sensitive to initial conditions. Such systems have the complexity of uncertain fractal and transmutation. The global new coronavirus epidemic that has broken out since 2020 has the complexity of a butterfly effect. In response to the characteristics and transmission methods of the new coronavirus epidemic and the reflection and enlightenment that it has given to us, we should take corresponding countermeasures, that is, to establish and improve the medical prevention and control system covering the entire population as soon as possible, to change some of our gathering habits in a more healthy and reasonable way, to cultivate our awareness of ecological civilization, formulate corresponding laws and regulations and protect the environment, to change the traditional development model that simply pursues the construction of large and super cities, to minimize or change the closed living environment as possible as we can, to strengthen international cooperation and work together to fight against the epidemic and finally build a mutual healthy community for humans.