中国城乡居民收入与消费的时空差异及其收敛性

Research on the Spatial-temporal Differences and Convergence Mechanism of Residents'Income and Consumption in China

不平衡、不充分是中国经济转型时期的突出问题,缩小居民收入与消费的地区和城乡差距对于当前中国社会主要矛盾的解决意义重大,其前提是厘清居民收入与消费的差距现状和演变趋势.本文将函数型数据分析的框架引入中国城乡居民收入与消费的时空差异研究.首先,基于粗糙惩罚思想重构居民收入与消费的连续函数;其次,利用函数型方差分析,分别检验城乡居民收入与消费的静态绝对水平差异和动态增长势能差异;最后,将传统的收敛模型进行函数化拓展,连续测度收入与消费时空差异的动态收敛性.研究发现:(1)东、中、西部农村居民收入与消费的绝对水平和增长势能都存在显著差异,但城镇居民的增长加速度不存在区域差异.(2)全国和东部城乡居民的收入与消费逐渐显现σ收敛,但中西部不存在.(3)全国范围内居民收入与消费的绝对β收敛逐渐显现,并且城镇居民存在显著的俱乐部收敛趋势,但东中西区域内部农村居民的绝对β收敛不显著.本文研究结论对缩小居民收入与消费的城乡和地区差距、促进区域经济协调发展具有重要的政策启示.

Imbalance and insufficiency are prominent problems in China’s economic transition period.Narrowing residents’ income and consumption regional and urban-rural gaps are of great significance for solving principal contradiction in China’s society.The premise is to clarify the current unbalanced situation and its evolution trend of residents’ income and consumption.This paper introduces the framework of functional data analysis(FDA) into the study of spatiotemporal differences between urban and rural residents’ income and consumption in China.Firstly,the continuous functions of residents’ income and consumption are reconstructed via smoothing with roughness penalties.Secondly,differences in the static absolute value and the dynamic growth potential of residents’ income and consumption are quantitatively tested using functional analysis of variance.Finally,the classical convergence models are extended to FDA so as to continuously measure the dynamic convergence of spatiotemporal differences in residents’ income and consumption.Empirical results show that:(1) there are significant differences in the absolute value and the growth potential of rural residents’ income and consumption among the eastern,central and western regions,but the regional difference in the growth acceleration of urban residents’ is not significant.(2) the σ convergences of urban and rural residents’ income and consumption are emerging gradually both for the whole country and the east region,whereas there is no shrinking trend in the central and western regions.(3) the absolute β convergences of nationwide residents’ income and consumption are appearing significantly,and there is a significant club convergence trend in urban residents’ income and consumption,but the absolute β convergences of rural residents in the three regions are not significant.The conclusions of this paper have important policy implications to shrink the urbanrural and regional gaps between residents’ income and consumption and promote a balanced development of regional economy.