"一带一路"中国沿海城市港口效率评价—基于DEA博弈交叉效率—Tobit模型

Evaluation of Port Efficiency of China’s Coastal Cities in“The Belt and Road”--Based on DEA Game Crossover Efficiency-Tobit Model

以"一带一路"战略所圈定的14个沿海城市港口作为研究对象,考虑到各个港口之间存在竞争关系,先运用DEA博弈交叉效率模型进行港口效率测度,并分析效率值时序变化与空间特征;然后运用Tobit模型对港口效率的影响因素作进一步分析.研究结果表明:整体上看,2008-2017年我国大部分沿海城市港口效率值呈现波动发展趋势,而青岛港和海口港发展较稳定;从港口群角度看,我国港口群效率值存在着南北两端较高、中部较低的空间特征,长江三角洲港口群效率值在前期处于较低水平,但是自从"一带一路"战略实施以来,效率值一直保持稳定增长速度.在港口效率的影响因素分析中,对外开放程度和产业结构与港口效率呈正相关关系,港口基础设施与港口效率呈负相关关系,而地区经济水平与港口效率存在倒U型曲线关系.

Taking the 14 coastal city ports defined by the "Belt and Road" strategy as the research objects and considering the competitive relationship among ports,the DEA game crossover efficiency model is used to measure the port efficiency,and the time series change and spatial characteristics of the efficiency value are analyzed;then the Tobit model is used to further analyze the influencing factors of port efficiency.The results show that:Overall,the port efficiency values of most coastal cities in China show fluctuating changes from 2008 to 2017,while the development of Qingdao Port and Haikou Port is relatively stable.From the point of view of the port group,China’s port group efficiency values have higher spatial characteristics in the north and south and lower in the middle.The efficiency of the port group in the Yangtze River Delta is at a relatively low level in the early stage,but since the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy,the efficiency value has maintained a steady growth rate.In the analysis of the influencing factors of port efficiency,the degree of openness and industrial structure are positively correlated with port efficiency,port infrastructure is negatively correlated with port efficiency,and there is an inverted U-shaped curve between regional economic level and port efficiency.