环境规制对区域碳排放时空差异的影响——基于东北三省32个地级市的实证分析

Impact of environmental regulation on spatial-temporal differences of regional carbon emissions:Empirical analysis based on 32 prefecture level cities in Northeast China

基于2007—2016年东北三省地级市面板数据,结合夜间灯光指数核算地级市碳排放,运用基尼系数、莫兰指数、热点分析等方法,实证分析了不同环境规制对东北三省地级市碳排放的空间效应.结果发现:(1)区域碳排放总量、人均碳排放量、碳排放强度和单位面积碳排放量呈现正向空间自相关,碳排放的热点区域在相邻地区发生转移,且都有排放中心区域,研究时段内,碳排放在空间上出现不同程度的增长,负增长区域较少.(2)命令型、经济型和自愿型3种环境规制强度在空间上趋向于更加平衡化的方向发展,存在空间分异性.(3)自愿型环境规制主要通过直接效应降低碳排放,命令型环境规制主要通过溢出效应降低碳排放,而经济型环境规制则通过总效应对碳排放产生显著正向影响.政府环保部门应促进命令型环境规制的空间溢出效应,通过提高经济型环境规制的有效性刺激技术更新,引进外国先进技术,实行绿色发展模式,以实现"波特假说"的目标.

Based on the panel data of prefecture level cities in Northeast China from 2007 to 2016, combined with the night light index to calculate the carbon emissions of preference level cities, this thesis empirically analyzes the spatial effects of different environmental regulations on carbon emissions of prefecture level cities in Northeast China by using Gini coefficient, Moran index and hot spot analysis. The results show that:(1)the total amount of regional carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions, carbon emission intensity and carbon emissions per unit area present positive spatial autocorrelation. The hot areas of carbon emissions transfer in adjacent areas, and there are emission centers. During the study period, carbon emissions show different degrees of growth in space, and the negative growth areas are less.(2)The three environmental regulation intensities of command type, economic type and voluntary type tend to be more balanced in space, and there are spatial differences.(3) Voluntary environmental regulation mainly reduces carbon emission through direct effect and mandatory environmental regulation mainly reduces carbon emission through spillover effect, while economic environmental regulation has significant positive impact on carbon emission through total effect. The government environmental protection department should promote the spatial spillover effect of mandatory environmental regulation, by improving the effectiveness of economic environmental regulation to stimulate technological innovation, introducing foreign advanced technology, and implementing green development mode. These measures aim to achieve the goal of "Porter Hypothesis".