基于随机Petri网的个人碳交易机制下电动汽车采纳行为演化研究

Effect of personal carbon trading on EV adoption behavior based on a stochastic Petri net

环境问题的日益紧迫与企业碳交易试点的快速推进预示着个人碳交易机制(Personal Carbon Trading,PCT)有望在未来落地,这将极大地影响消费者的绿色意识与行为决策.本研究构建随机Petri网(SPN)模型,以分析PCT机制下居民电动汽车采纳行为的演化过程,并定量地探讨环境意识和PCT机制对电动车采纳行为的影响作用.PCT的“总量控制”与“自由交易”的特色能显著提高消费者的环保意识,但本文结果表明,这对现阶段的电动汽车采纳行为是一把“双刃剑”,导致政府引入PCT机制并不一定对居民电动汽车的采纳产生正向影响.具体来说,环境意识在提高消费者为低碳产品支付溢价的意愿的同时,也引发了人们对电动车实际低碳性能和低碳出行方式的质疑.因此,政府应协调PCT政策和传统激励政策的力度,以最大限度地实现促进电动汽车产销量的目标.本研究有助于更好地理解PCT机制下居民电动汽车采纳行为的演化路径,为政府决策和电动汽车企业的产品设计和定价提供理论支持.

The increasing urgency of environmental issues and maturity of the upstream carbon trading schemes indicate that personal carbon trading(PCT)is likely to be implemented soon,which will significantly affect the green behavior of consumers.In this study,a stochastic Petri net(SPN)model was constructed to analyze the evolution of the residential EV adoption behavior under a PCT scheme and the impacts of the environmental awareness and the PCT scheme on the EV adoption behavior were quantified.The results of this work show that the introduction of PCT does not necessarily positively impact the EV adoption.An emission quota and“cap-and-trade”attributes can significantly increase the environmental awareness of consumers,which is a“double-edged sword”for the EV adoption behavior at this stage.Specifically,it raises questions about the actual low-carbon performance of EVs and changes in travel patterns while increasing the willingness of consumers to pay a premium for the low-carbon products.Therefore,the government should rationalize the strength of PCT policies and traditional incentives to maximize the goal of promoting the EV adoption.The results can aid in gaining a better understanding of the behavioral evolution of the consumer EV adoption under the PCT scheme and provide theoretical support for government policymaking and product design and pricing by EV companies.