在失序与重塑中艰难前行——全球国家风险回顾与展望

Economic Recovery and the Pandemic——Global Risk and the Implications for Multinationals

2020年,全球经济遭遇疫情冲击,陷入深度衰退,虽然中国对外直接投资逆势增长,但跨国企业海外运营风险陡增。部分国家社会与政治局势失稳,营商环境恶化,外资准入审查收紧。2021年,新冠疫苗将成为全球抗击疫情和重启经济的关键,但成效仍受诸多因素制约。在此背景下,世界经济分化式复苏,国际治理体系的变化与社会风险的显性化将给企业跨国投资带来新的不确定性。

In 2020, the pandemic jolted the global economy and sent it plunging into recession. Although China’s foreign direct investment recorded growth in this difficult environment, the risks associated with the overseas operations of multinational companies rose sharply. In some countries, the social and political situation has become unstable, the business environment has deteriorated, and market access for foreign investment has been tightened. In 2021, the vaccine will be the key to the global fight against the pandemic and the success of the economic recovery, but its effectiveness is still constrained by many factors. In this context, the widely differing levels of success in achieving economic recovery as well as the changes in the international governance system and the emergence of new social risks will bring more uncertainties to investments by multinational companies.