某抽水蓄能机组振动趋势预测研究

Research on Vibration Trend Prediction of a Pumped Storage Unit

振动是影响抽水蓄能机组正常运行和危害机组寿命的主要故障。本文对某250MW抽水蓄能机组异常振动开展理论预测研究,并基于ARMA方法建立机组振动趋势预测模型,实现对机组上导轴承及上机架的振动趋势预测。结果表明,振摆预测数据和实际数据接近,预测误差均在10%以内,能够有效预测机组振动趋势,可为保证机组旋转过程中的稳定性及故障诊断提供理论支撑和技术依据。

Vibration is a main fault that affects the operation of pumped storage unit,endangers its life span.In this paper,the theoretical prediction of abnormal vibration of a 250MW pumped storage unit was carried out,and the unit vibration trend prediction model was established based on ARMA method to realize the vibration trend prediction of the upper bearing and upper frame of the unit.The results show that the runout prediction data is close to the actual data,and the prediction error is within 10%.It can effectively predict the vibration trend of the unit,and can provide theoretical support and technical basis for ensuring the stability and fault diagnosis during the rotation of the unit.