基于数据挖掘的新冠病毒传播趋势研究

The Transmission Trend of New Coronavirus Based on Data Mining

针对单日和累计新增、确诊、治愈、死亡等数据,建立回归模型进行数据拟合。利用SPSS软件,建立时间序列模型,预测疫情短时期内变化趋势。对性别,年龄,迁移等因素进行检验,判断控制型变量对疫情感染的显著性影响。利用方差分析,得到性别、年龄、人口流动因素对疫情影响显著。预测出全球疫情传染仍处于危险期,感染人数仍在递增,发生二次波动的可能性较大。

Regression models were established for data fitting of new,diagnosed,cured,and dead on a single day and cumulative basis.The SPSS software was used to establish a time series model to predict the change trend of the epidemic in a short period of time.Gender,age and migration were tested to determine the significant influence of control variables on the epidemic infection.The analysis of variance showed that gender,age,migration had significant effects on the epidemic situation.It is predicted that the global epidemic is still in a critical period,the number of infected people is still increasing,and the possibility of secondary fluctuations is large.