人力资本层次结构优化与产业演进--基于中国省级面板数据

Human Capital Hierarchy Structure Optimization and Industrial Evolution--Based on Chinese provincial panel data

基于2003-2019年中国30个省区就业人员受教育程度的面板数据,探索人力资本层次结构与产业结构演进的关系。结果表明:我国初等、中等和高等教育规模的变动都是产业结构变动的影响因素;从短期来看,中等教育层次的人力资本对于产业结构变动是即期影响,而高等教育规模对产业结构变化至少滞后1期才会起作用;从长期来看,高等教育规模的扩大对产业结构的作用是最大的,其次是中等教育规模,而初等教育规模的扩大会抑制产业结构升级。

Based on the panel data of the education level of employees in 30 provinces and regions in China from 2003 to 2019,this paper explores the relationship between the hierarchical structure of human capital and the evolution of industrial structure.The results show that the changes in the scale of my country's primary,secondary and higher education are all influencing factors of industrial structure changes.From a short-term perspective,human capital at the secondary education level has an immediate effect on changes in the industrial structure,while the scale of higher educatio34n has an effect on changes in the industrial structure at least one period.In the long run,the expansion of the scale of higher education has the greatest effect on the industrial structure,followed by the scale of secondary education,and the expansion of the scale of primary education will inhibit the upgrading of the industrial structure.