四川省干旱脆弱性的主成分分析模型评价

Evaluation of Principal Component Analysis Model for Drought Vulnerability in Sichuan Province

基于2018年《四川统计年鉴》相关数据,遵循全面性、数据可获取性原则,从暴露度、敏感性、适应能力三个方面入手选取13个指标,运用主成分分析的方法,建立四川省干旱脆弱性评价模型,得到四川省不同市州干旱脆弱性综合评价及其排名,并根据综合得分在ArcGIS中获得四川省干旱脆弱性的空间分布图,结果表明:(1)通过主成分分析得到五个主成分,第一个主成分主要反映经济脆弱性,第二、第四主成分反映农业脆弱性,第三主成分反映了社会脆弱性,第五主成分反映了自然脆弱性.(2)总体而言,四川省干旱脆弱性最强的为甘孜藏族自治州,其次是阿坝藏族羌族自治州;干旱脆弱性最弱的是成都市,其次是攀枝花市和宜宾市.(3)在空间上,四川省西北部和东北部的干旱脆弱性较强,南部干旱脆弱性较弱.这一结果可为四川省防旱抗旱工作提供一定的理论支持.

Based on the data related to the 2018 Sichuan Statistical Yearbook,following the principles of comprehensiveness and data accessibility,13 indicators were selected from three aspects of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability,and using the method of principal component analysis,a drought vulnerability evaluation model was established to obtain the comprehensive evaluation of drought vulnerability and its ranking in different cities and states in Sichuan province.According to the comprehensive score in ArcGIS,the spatial distribution map of drought vulnerability in Sichuan province was obtained.The results show that:(1)five principal components are obtained by principal component analysis.The first principal component mainly reflects economic vul⁃nerability,the second and fourth principal components reflect agricultural vulnerability,the third principal component reflects so⁃cial vulnerability,and the fifth principal component reflects natural vulnerability;(2)in general,the strongest drought vulnerability of Sichuan province is in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,followed by Aba Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture;the weakest drought vulnerability is in Chengdu,followed by Panzhihua and Yibin.(3)Spatially,the drought vulnerability is stronger in northwestern and northeastern Sichuan province,and weaker in southern Sichuan province.This result can provide some theoretical support for drought prevention and drought relief in Sichuan province.