稳态视角下的供应链金融违约风险传染研究

Research on the Contagion of Default Risk of Supply Chain Finance from the Perspective of Steady State

融资企业未能按期偿还融资债务是违约风险产生的主要因素。论文依据供应链金融参与企业间的业务和债务关系构建供应链网络系统,依托传染病模型分析违约风险在供应链网络节点企业间的传染过程,对影响违约风险传染的因素进行仿真分析。研究发现:供应链网络企业影响力与其违约风险传染呈正相关;信息不对称是造成违约风险爆发的主要因素;强化影响力大的节点企业对风险的抵抗能力,能够缓解违约风险对供应链网络造成的不利影响。

The main factor of default risk is that the financing enterprise fails to repay the financing debt on time.This paper constructs a supply chain network system based on the business and debt relationship between the enterprises participating in the supply chain finance,analyzes the contagion process of default risk among the node enterprises of the supply chain network based on the contagion model,and makes simulation analysis on the factors influencing the contagion of default risk.The results show that the influence of supply chain network enterprises is positively correlated with the contagion of default risk.Information asymmetry is the main factor causing the outbreak of default risk.Strengthening the resistance of influential node enterprises to risk can alleviate the adverse influence of default risk on supply chain network.