商品房价格上涨如何抑制金融业空间集聚--来自中国地级及以上城市的经验证据

How Does Commercial House Price Rise Restrain the Spatial Agglomeration of Financial Industry?Empirical Evidence from Chinese Cities at Prefecture Level or Above

本文基于中国182个城市数据,实证检验了房价上涨对金融业空间集聚的影响机理。研究发现:商品房价格(住宅和商业地产的均价)上涨对金融业集聚有显著的抑制作用,但如果单看住宅价格上涨,其对金融业集聚的影响显著为正;商品房价格对金融业集聚的抑制主要发生在商品房价格涨幅较低的地区,而住宅价格对金融业集聚的促进主要发生在住宅价格涨幅较高的地区;就业规模在商品房价格上涨抑制金融业集聚过程中无显著中介效应,“劳动力驱赶”机制不成立;居民储蓄规模在商品房价格上涨抑制金融业集聚过程中起部分中介效应,“客户资源挤出”机制成立,而金融业建筑安装工程投资起不到任何中介效应。以上研究发现说明,房价过快上涨容易吸引社会资本参与“炒房”,挤出对线下金融业务有较高需求的中低收入家庭,不利于金融业空间集聚;地方政府脱离本地金融服务需求的金融招商,将可能进一步加剧金融资源配置扭曲;为使金融业更好服务实体经济,首先应当遏制地方财政对房价地价上涨的依赖,为金融机构获取基础性客户资源提供便利化环境。

Based on the data of 182 cities in China,this paper empirically tests the influence mechanism of rising housing price on the spatial agglomeration of financial industry.The research finds that:The rise of commercial house price(the average price increase of residential and commercial real estate)has a significant inhibitory effect on the financial agglomeration,but only take consideration of the residential price,the effect of housingprice increase on the financial agglomeration is significantly positive;The suppression of commercial housing price on financial industry agglomeration mainly occurs in the regions with lower price increase of commercial housing,while the promotion of residential housing price on financial industry agglomeration mainly occurs in the regions with higher price increase of residential housing;The employment scale has no significant mediating effect in the process of housing price increase inhibiting finan-cial agglomeration,and the mechanism of"labor driving"doesn't work;The scale of household savings has a partial intermediary effect in the process of inhibiting the agglomeration of financial industry due to the price rise of commercial housing,and the mechanism of"customer resource extrusion"takes effect,while the investment of construction and installation projects in financial industry has no intermediary effect.The above findings indicate that excessively rising housing prices are likely to attract social capital to participate in"real estate speculation",crowd out middle and low-income families with high demand for offline financial services,and adversely affect the spatial agglomeration of the financial industry.The local government's financial investment which is separated from the local financial service demand may further aggravate the distortion of finan-cial resource allocation.In order to make the financial industry better serve the real economy,it’s important that we should curb the dependence of local finance on rising housing and land prices and provide a convenient environment for financial institutions to acquire basic customer re-sources.