汛期降水变化特征与短期预测方法--以共青城地区为例

Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in Flood Season and Short-term Forecasting Methods-A Case Study of Gongqingcheng City Area

系统性地分析共青城地区汛期降水变化特征和短期预报方法,采用比较分析、回归分析、小波分析和M-K检验等方法,分析汛期降水量时间变化特征及其与上年冬季气候背景因子的相关性,进而建立汛期降水年景预报模型。结果表明:1)近60 a研究地区4—6月份降水量线性及周期性变化趋势均不显著,且年代际变化平稳;而7月份降水量较显著线性递增,且存在尺度为10~11 a的主振荡周期;两者均未出现突变。2)上年冬季气温及降水因子,与汛期降水量存在着一定程度的相关性,由此建立的汛期降水量预报模型,在业务中具有一定的应用或参考价值。

In order to systematically analyze the variation characteristics of precipitation in flood season and short-term forecasting methods in Gongqingcheng area,by means of comparative analysis,regression analysis,wavelet analysis and M-K test,the time variation characteristics of precipitation in flood season and its correlation with climatic background factors of last winter are analyzed,and then the annual forecast model of precipitation in flood season is established.The results show that:1)The linear and periodic variation trend of precipitation in the study area from April to June is not significant,and the interdecadal variation is stable.The precipitation in July increased linearly and there was a main oscillation period with a scale of 10-11 a.There was no mutation in either.2)There is a certain degree of correlation between last year's winter temperature and precipitation factors and precipitation in flood season.Therefore,the precipitation forecast model established by this model has certain application or reference value in business.