基于数据驱动的输电网节点停电风险评估指标研究

Study on Nodal Outage Risk Evaluation Index for Transmission Network Based on Data-driven Method

传统的输电系统可靠性分析以整个系统为研究目标,无法正确评估局部系统的停电风险。本文从负荷角度出发,结合数据驱动方法提出了基于发电机和负荷节点之间的连通度的节点运行风险评估指标——节点连通度。该指标采用数据驱动的方法,通过基于历史数据的学习及节点的局部测量数据和系统拓扑信息得到。同时为了提高指标精度,本文通过加权最小二乘法进行回归分析。该指标随着运行压力的增加而下降,对应描述了负荷节点可靠性不断下降直至发生甩负荷的过程。通过对IEEE-118节点算例进行仿真分析,验证了指标的有效性。

The traditional reliability analysis of transmission system usually takes the whole system as the research ob⁃ject,which cannot correctly evaluate the outage risk of a local system.From the perspective of load,a node operation risk evaluation index based on the connectivity between generators and load nodes is proposed by combining with a data-driven method,i.e.,nodal connectivity.Using the data-driven method,this index is obtained through learning based on the historical data,the local measurement data of nodes,and the information about the system topology.At the same time,in order to improve the accuracy of the index,regression analysis is performed using the weighted least square method.This index decreases with the increase in the operating pressure,and it describes the corresponding process of continuous decrease in the reliability of load node until load rejection occurs.Through the simulation analysis of an IEEE 118-node example,the validity of the proposed index is verified.